DFRIDebt-Funded Revenue Index

The debt behind
the revenue.

How much of a company's U.S. consumer revenue is funded by new borrowing? DFRI estimates the share—and shows how much is known.

Explore companies How it works

The current estimate

2026-Q1 · estimated share of U.S. consumer revenue
3.56%
Revenue-weighted DFR% · 50 companiesTier 1–3Method and provenance
Estimated DFR% band: 3.29% to 3.84%, midpoint 3.56% 3.29% 3.56% 3.84%
Low3.29%Midpoint3.56%High3.84%

Estimated 80% band · share of U.S. consumer revenue

Tier 1 35.4%Tier 2 44.3%Tier 3 20.3%
View chart data and provenance
Text equivalent for the current revenue-weighted estimated DFR% band.
Period2026-Q1
Estimated 80% band3.29% to 3.84% of U.S. consumer revenue
Estimated midpoint3.56% of U.S. consumer revenue
Evidence mixTier 1 35.4% Tier 2 44.3% Tier 3 20.3%
ProvenanceMethod and registered assumptions

Across the same publication, covered-company midpoint estimates range from 1.45% at Booking Holdings to 20.26% at Carvana. The 3.56% headline is revenue-weighted, not a threshold or a typical-company score.

Midpoint represents an estimated $20,976 million of debt-funded consumer revenue over an estimated $588,888 million denominator. Bands are always shown.

Prediction ledger

Monthly consumer-credit and federal-fiscal forecasts, recorded before release. Grades use the first published figure, never a later revision.

2026-08-31 · Nonrevolving credit flow · $M monthly flow
10,156
Seasonally adjusted · millions of U.S. dollarsAwaiting first printImmutable record
Prediction band: -3,561 to 23,872, point 10,156 -3,56110,15623,872
Low-3,561Point10,156High23,872

95% prediction interval · $M

View chart data and provenance
Text equivalent for the latest immutable prediction band.
Series and periodNonrevolving credit flow, 2026-08-31
Point10,156 millions of U.S. dollars
80% interval1,187 to 19,124 millions of U.S. dollars
95% interval-3,561 to 23,872 millions of U.S. dollars
StatusAwaiting first print
ProvenanceImmutable prediction record
Historical model performance

Historical backtest

Historical tests compare the nowcast with explicit naive benchmarks; they are not live-grade results.

2018–2026 · $M mean absolute error
4,633
38.1% better than ar2-ols-v1Model evidence
Live grade record · 2 graded / 10 predictions
Live grade record

Nonrevolving credit flow

Graded records
1
Within 80% band
100.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
100.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
2,568$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
1,959$M · ar2-ols-v1

Revolving credit flow

Graded records
1
Within 80% band
0.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
0.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
12,329$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
5,525$M · ar2-ols-v1

Federal deficit

Graded records
0
Within 80% band
—versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
—versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
—$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
—$M · awaiting first grade

Federal outlays

Graded records
0
Within 80% band
—versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
—versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
—$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
—$M · awaiting first grade

Live-grade statistics remain separate from the historical backtest. Read every prediction, grade, and the published first miss.

How much is known

Every estimate separates directly observed financing links from category mappings and proportional allocation.

Tier definitions
T1 — Observed
A company disclosure directly links financing to sales.
T2 — Category-mapped
Credit is mapped to spending categories, then to companies using registered weights.
T3 — Fungible
Credit that cannot be assigned directly is allocated broadly by estimated consumer revenue, with the widest uncertainty.

Tier percentages show how the estimate was constructed—not confidence scores. Full methodology

Credit flow

From new borrowing to company revenue. Follow the estimated allocations through spending categories; line style tells you what the evidence supports.

2026-Q1 · registered midpoint allocations · millions of U.S. dollars
Width = estimated dollarsStyle = how much is actually knownMethod and provenance
2026-Q1 consumer-credit attribution flow Credit products flow through tiered categories to CVNA, GM and other covered companies. Width is midpoint $M; solid, dashed, and dotted mean Tiers 1, 2, and 3. Credit products Spending categories Covered companies Revolving$7,146MNonrevolving$13,389M Other Tier 1$7,196MGeneralretail$4,620MOther Tier 2$4,479MTier3 proportional$4,240M CVNA13.02x lift$915MGM12.90x lift$5,056MAll othercovered$14,565M
Ribbon key Tier 1 · observed link Tier 2 · category-mapped Tier 3 · fungible
The diagram begins with the portion of published G.19 flow represented by attribution lanes; it is not a complete use-of-funds decomposition. Tier 3 flows are proportional allocations, not observed transfers.
Explore the complete flow data
Text equivalent for the flow diagram. Each row is one exact rendered ribbon; highest-lift companies are separate and the remaining covered companies are bundled.
SourceDestinationEstimated amountEvidence tier
NonrevolvingOther Tier 1$6,210M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 1
RevolvingOther Tier 1$986M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 1
RevolvingGeneral retail$4,620M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
NonrevolvingOther Tier 2$4,479M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
NonrevolvingTier 3 proportional$2,700M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 3
RevolvingTier 3 proportional$1,540M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 3
Other Tier 1CVNA$540M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 1
Other Tier 1GM$2,970M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 1
Other Tier 1All other covered companies$3,686M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 1
General retailCVNA$36M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
General retailGM$199M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
General retailAll other covered companies$4,385M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
Other Tier 2CVNA$306M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
Other Tier 2GM$1,703M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
Other Tier 2All other covered companies$2,470M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 2
Tier 3 proportionalCVNA$33M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 3
Tier 3 proportionalGM$183M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 3
Tier 3 proportionalAll other covered companies$4,024M (millions of U.S. dollars)Tier 3

Evidence Lift

Evidence Lift measures company-specific financing evidence, not risk, credit quality, or investment merit.

Carvana has the highest Evidence Lift at 13.02x versus 1.00x for the median covered company.

Companies with evidence above the same-period pure-fungibility baseline, ranked by DFR% midpoint divided by that baseline.
RankCompanyLiftEstimated DFR% bandEvidence mixInterpretation
1 CVNA Carvana 13.02x Estimated 16.61%–24.08% T1 59.0% T2 37.4% T3 3.6% Evidence-supported
2 GM General Motors 12.90x Estimated 17.10%–22.99% T1 58.7% T2 37.7% T3 3.6% Evidence-supported
3 F Ford Motor Company 12.37x Estimated 16.18%–22.26% T1 56.7% T2 39.5% T3 3.8% Evidence-supported
4 TSLA Tesla 5.34x Estimated 6.10%–11.40% T1 0.0% T2 91.2% T3 8.8% Evidence-supported
5 TJX TJX Companies 1.76x Estimated 2.29%–3.32% T1 42.7% T2 30.3% T3 26.9% Evidence-supported
6 ULTA Ulta Beauty 1.65x Estimated 2.09%–3.19% T1 39.3% T2 32.1% T3 28.6% Evidence-supported
7 BBY Best Buy 1.61x Estimated 2.10%–2.95% T1 37.7% T2 33.0% T3 29.3% Evidence-supported
8 TSCO Tractor Supply 1.54x Estimated 1.98%–2.91% T1 34.9% T2 34.5% T3 30.6% Evidence-supported
9 LOW Lowe's 1.36x Estimated 1.84%–2.40% T1 26.1% T2 39.2% T3 34.8% Evidence-supported
10 HD Home Depot 1.27x Estimated 1.71%–2.19% T1 20.8% T2 42.0% T3 37.3% Evidence-supported
11 AMZN Amazon 1.25x Estimated 1.66%–2.19% T1 19.7% T2 42.5% T3 37.8% Evidence-supported
12 TGT Target 1.24x Estimated 1.71%–2.13% T1 19.4% T2 42.7% T3 37.9% Evidence-supported
13 WMT Walmart 1.07x Estimated 1.46%–1.84% T1 6.4% T2 49.5% T3 44.0% Evidence-supported
Show 37 baseline-only companies at 1.00x

No company-specific financing evidence found; each estimate reflects proportional allocation. The complete estimates and evidence mix remain available below.

Complete baseline-only group, retaining every rank, estimated DFR% band, and Tier 1/2/3 split.
RankCompanyLiftEstimated DFR% bandEvidence mixInterpretation
14 ABNB Airbnb 1.00x Estimated 1.18%–2.15% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
15 AZO AutoZone 1.00x Estimated 1.33%–1.80% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
16 BKNG Booking Holdings 1.00x Estimated 1.02%–2.25% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
17 CASY Casey's 1.00x Estimated 1.36%–1.75% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
18 CCL Carnival Corporation 1.00x Estimated 1.22%–2.10% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
19 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.75% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
20 COST Costco 1.00x Estimated 1.32%–1.81% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
21 DASH DoorDash 1.00x Estimated 1.33%–1.88% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
22 DECK Deckers Brands 1.00x Estimated 1.18%–2.11% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
23 DG Dollar General 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.74% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
24 DLTR Dollar Tree 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.74% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
25 DPZ Domino's 1.00x Estimated 1.32%–1.86% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
26 DRI Darden Restaurants 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.74% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
27 EBAY eBay 1.00x Estimated 1.20%–2.05% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
28 EL Estée Lauder 1.00x Estimated 1.11%–2.16% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
29 EXPE Expedia Group 1.00x Estimated 1.21%–2.06% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
30 GRMN Garmin 1.00x Estimated 1.17%–2.11% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
31 HAS Hasbro 1.00x Estimated 1.19%–2.10% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
32 HLT Hilton Worldwide 1.00x Estimated 1.17%–2.16% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
33 KR Kroger 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.74% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
34 LULU Lululemon Athletica 1.00x Estimated 1.28%–1.92% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
35 MAR Marriott International 1.00x Estimated 1.18%–2.15% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
36 MCD McDonald's 1.00x Estimated 1.22%–2.00% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
37 MGM MGM Resorts 1.00x Estimated 1.31%–1.84% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
38 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings 1.00x Estimated 1.24%–2.01% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
39 NKE Nike 1.00x Estimated 1.21%–2.07% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
40 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive 1.00x Estimated 1.31%–1.84% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
41 PEP PepsiCo 1.00x Estimated 1.25%–1.97% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
42 PG Procter & Gamble 1.00x Estimated 1.16%–2.10% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
43 RCL Royal Caribbean Group 1.00x Estimated 1.24%–2.01% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
44 RL Ralph Lauren 1.00x Estimated 1.18%–2.14% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
45 ROST Ross Stores 1.00x Estimated 1.37%–1.74% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
46 SBUX Starbucks 1.00x Estimated 1.31%–1.86% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
47 TPR Tapestry 1.00x Estimated 1.18%–2.11% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
48 WSM Williams-Sonoma 1.00x Estimated 1.36%–1.79% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
49 WYNN Wynn Resorts 1.00x Estimated 1.16%–2.09% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only
50 YUM Yum! Brands 1.00x Estimated 1.16%–2.11% T1 0.0% T2 53.0% T3 47.0% Baseline-only

Companies

Look inside the estimate. Explore all 50 companies, with the evidence and uncertainty behind every band.

Browse all 50 company estimates →