https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/ New DFRI predictions, grades, restatements, source fallbacks, and methodology changes. prediction:prd_f61e3a2976eee625b7d413df719eea039992e7717184168fcb6798c69ecb4039 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_f61e3a2976eee625b7d413df719eea039992e7717184168fcb6798c69ecb4039/ 10,156 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 1,187 to 19,124; 95% band -3,561 to 23,872. Thu, 10 Sep 2026 01:09:01 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_a5f4a49750e4d2a6aa5368d4053e7e6b48c6bddf0674b06dbdb35fdca278c19d https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_a5f4a49750e4d2a6aa5368d4053e7e6b48c6bddf0674b06dbdb35fdca278c19d/ 3,026 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -4,737 to 10,788; 95% band -8,846 to 14,897. Thu, 10 Sep 2026 01:09:01 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_8a434fae2d296f262ef0e592468e64c8b97ce594c82847322e2916877ee73928 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_8a434fae2d296f262ef0e592468e64c8b97ce594c82847322e2916877ee73928/ 344,792 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 170,666 to 518,918; 95% band -189,003 to 878,586. Mon, 07 Sep 2026 20:00:08 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_889079bbe1d95e59c12c75ad30ebb8b9d207c45799855ea96ed4dd2aaf65c03f https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_889079bbe1d95e59c12c75ad30ebb8b9d207c45799855ea96ed4dd2aaf65c03f/ 629,715 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 497,560 to 761,870; 95% band 442,777 to 816,653. Mon, 07 Sep 2026 20:00:08 GMT new_prediction changelog:site-accessible-chart-equivalents-and-public-boundaries https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#site-accessible-chart-equivalents-and-public-boundaries Added visible text-equivalent tables for every published flow, band, and company evidence-decomposition chart; published append-only corrections and scope-boundary policies; and added permanent build checks for those accessibility contracts without changing any estimate or feed. Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:resilience-status-events-and-citation-boundary https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#resilience-status-events-and-citation-boundary Added per-lane run and release-SLA status, visible status and fallback notices, failure issues, versioned JSON/RSS events, deterministic social previews, exact dependency and vulnerability gates, and a conditional citation surface that remains absent until a real DOI is verified. Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:moat-b-methodology-1-2-1-tjx-tier1 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#moat-b-methodology-1-2-1-tjx-tier1 Added a reviewed TJX private-label-card lane using two dated Synchrony trust filings with program-level receivables; preserved methodology 1.2.0, left all 49 unaffected company result objects unchanged, and published the restatement under the versioned v2 assumption feed. Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT methodology_change changelog:moat-a-treasury-mts-second-clock https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#moat-a-treasury-mts-second-clock Added immutable, first-print-graded Monthly Treasury Statement predictions for federal deficit and total outlays; benchmark selection, empirical intervals, and live calibration remain separate for each series and never alter or blend with G.19 records. Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:methodology-1-2-auto-allocation-sources https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#methodology-1-2-auto-allocation-sources Retired the NY Fed Household Debt and Credit source from the active auto-allocation assumption; reconciled FFIEC bank, NCUA credit-union, Federal Reserve Board G.19, and SEC Auto ABS evidence; separately versioned the resulting 50-company and headline-index restatement; and added computed source criticality with independent fallbacks and visible degraded-source bands. Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT methodology_change changelog:ux-prediction-evidence-rail https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#ux-prediction-evidence-rail Used the wide homepage's prediction rail for the live ledger count and existing historical backtest figures, while preserving explicit live-versus-backtest labels, mobile reading order, and the separate live-grade calibration record. Sun, 09 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:ux-information-architecture https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#ux-information-architecture Separated the homepage claims into an ordered reading path, promoted the immutable prediction ledger, grouped 38 indistinguishable baseline-only Evidence Lift rows behind a native disclosure, and added a complete alphabetical company directory without changing any estimate or feed. Sun, 09 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:tier-flow-typographic-inversion https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#tier-flow-typographic-inversion Compressed the heading scale so figures carry the hierarchy and added a server-rendered current-period flow view whose ribbon width represents estimated dollars and whose solid, dashed, and dotted styles expose evidence tiers without color dependence. Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:scoreboard-first-live-grades https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#scoreboard-first-live-grades Published the first two live grades, prominently flagging that the revolving prediction missed direction and its 80% interval; added running live-only coverage and MAE comparisons without retraining or retuning the model. Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:scoreboard-feed-grade-status-corrected https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#scoreboard-feed-grade-status-corrected Corrected the scoreboard compatibility status so every graded row reports GRADED, matching grade_status; the feed schema now states and tests that invariant. Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change prediction:prd_f180179664ad5f7d7df1c53740dc939220dbda78e29303b85e7d714454537d93 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_f180179664ad5f7d7df1c53740dc939220dbda78e29303b85e7d714454537d93/ 12,326 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 3,320 to 21,333; 95% band -1,448 to 26,101. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 23:50:56 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_4613c5a7c6b9b652464e7c3230252f46a9fbf90f1b6d5c24b57244bba5a89966 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_4613c5a7c6b9b652464e7c3230252f46a9fbf90f1b6d5c24b57244bba5a89966/ 6,425 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -1,357 to 14,207; 95% band -5,477 to 18,327. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 23:50:56 GMT new_prediction grade:prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af/ First print 6,800 million U.S. dollars; absolute error 12,329 million U.S. dollars. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT new_grade grade:prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0/ First print 7,400 million U.S. dollars; absolute error 2,568 million U.S. dollars. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT new_grade changelog:v1-1-1-cvna-evidence-lift https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-1-cvna-evidence-lift Added Carvana's SEC-filed originated-auto-finance and ABS trust evidence, included CVNA in the covered-auto allocation, and published the derived Evidence Lift ranking under a non-breaking v2 company-feed schema. Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT methodology_change prediction:prd_c589a3d29179066784b619fc64987dcc9929c5cedff496ff4d7ca3472d543e44 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_c589a3d29179066784b619fc64987dcc9929c5cedff496ff4d7ca3472d543e44/ 12,523 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 3,454 to 21,591; 95% band -1,347 to 26,392. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 02:24:45 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af/ -5,529 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -13,243 to 2,184; 95% band -17,327 to 6,268. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 02:24:45 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0/ 9,968 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 923 to 19,013; 95% band -3,865 to 23,801. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 02:24:45 GMT new_prediction prediction:prd_6177c0c4e9f1c076686adb4cd5e4ead039b995aa246337288b9411c706e1a9dc https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_6177c0c4e9f1c076686adb4cd5e4ead039b995aa246337288b9411c706e1a9dc/ 4,291 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -3,396 to 11,977; 95% band -7,464 to 16,046. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 02:24:45 GMT new_prediction changelog:v1-1-quarterly-refresh-2026-q1 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-quarterly-refresh-2026-q1 Recomputed the 2026-Q1 50-company attribution from six Board first-print monthly flows and point-in-time SEC filing facts; 35 denominators advanced through comparable 10-Q facts and 15 remained explicitly on their annual baseline. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:v1-1-methodology https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-methodology Expanded the evidence-first consumer-company universe from 10 to 50, published the dated 31-company exclusion ledger, and retained methodology 1.0.0 results for direct comparison. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT methodology_change changelog:site-nowcast-units-provenance-and-orientation https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#site-nowcast-units-provenance-and-orientation Clarified seasonally adjusted monthly-flow units, added plain-language forecast orientation and primary-source links, and made scoreboard sorting a JavaScript-only enhancement. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:registry-digest-cross-platform https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#registry-digest-cross-platform Canonicalized attribution registry hashing and text assets so Windows and Linux cold clones publish byte-identical provenance metadata and site assets. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change changelog:methodology-1-0-0 https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#methodology-1-0-0 Published the first ten-company revenue-weighted DFRI estimate with 20,000-draw bands, tier shares, a public Assumption Registry, and company sensitivity rankings. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT methodology_change changelog:public-scoreboard-clock-started https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#public-scoreboard-clock-started Published the immutable Federal Reserve credit-flow scoreboard and registered the scheduled prediction and first-print grading lanes. Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT publication_change