{"data":[{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_f61e3a2976eee625b7d413df719eea039992e7717184168fcb6798c69ecb4039","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-09-10T01:09:01.243063+00:00","summary":"10,156 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 1,187 to 19,124; 95% band -3,561 to 23,872.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLN.M","title":"New prediction: Nonrevolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_f61e3a2976eee625b7d413df719eea039992e7717184168fcb6798c69ecb4039/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_a5f4a49750e4d2a6aa5368d4053e7e6b48c6bddf0674b06dbdb35fdca278c19d","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-09-10T01:09:01.243063+00:00","summary":"3,026 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -4,737 to 10,788; 95% band -8,846 to 14,897.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLR.M","title":"New prediction: Revolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_a5f4a49750e4d2a6aa5368d4053e7e6b48c6bddf0674b06dbdb35fdca278c19d/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_8a434fae2d296f262ef0e592468e64c8b97ce594c82847322e2916877ee73928","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-09-07T20:00:08.989506+00:00","summary":"344,792 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 170,666 to 518,918; 95% band -189,003 to 878,586.","target_series":"MTS:DEFICIT.M","title":"New prediction: Federal deficit","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_8a434fae2d296f262ef0e592468e64c8b97ce594c82847322e2916877ee73928/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_889079bbe1d95e59c12c75ad30ebb8b9d207c45799855ea96ed4dd2aaf65c03f","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-09-07T20:00:08.989506+00:00","summary":"629,715 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 497,560 to 761,870; 95% band 442,777 to 816,653.","target_series":"MTS:OUTLAYS.M","title":"New prediction: Federal outlays","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_889079bbe1d95e59c12c75ad30ebb8b9d207c45799855ea96ed4dd2aaf65c03f/"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:site-accessible-chart-equivalents-and-public-boundaries","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Added visible text-equivalent tables for every published flow, band, and company evidence-decomposition chart; published append-only corrections and scope-boundary policies; and added permanent build checks for those accessibility contracts without changing any estimate or feed.","target_series":null,"title":"Chart equivalents and public boundaries added","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#site-accessible-chart-equivalents-and-public-boundaries"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:resilience-status-events-and-citation-boundary","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Added per-lane run and release-SLA status, visible status and fallback notices, failure issues, versioned JSON/RSS events, deterministic social previews, exact dependency and vulnerability gates, and a conditional citation surface that remains absent until a real DOI is verified.","target_series":null,"title":"Automation status and event distribution added","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#resilience-status-events-and-citation-boundary"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:moat-b-methodology-1-2-1-tjx-tier1","event_type":"methodology_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Added a reviewed TJX private-label-card lane using two dated Synchrony trust filings with program-level receivables; preserved methodology 1.2.0, left all 49 unaffected company result objects unchanged, and published the restatement under the versioned v2 assumption feed.","target_series":null,"title":"TJX moved off the fungibility baseline","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#moat-b-methodology-1-2-1-tjx-tier1"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:moat-a-treasury-mts-second-clock","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Added immutable, first-print-graded Monthly Treasury Statement predictions for federal deficit and total outlays; benchmark selection, empirical intervals, and live calibration remain separate for each series and never alter or blend with G.19 records.","target_series":null,"title":"Treasury deficit and outlays clock added","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#moat-a-treasury-mts-second-clock"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:methodology-1-2-auto-allocation-sources","event_type":"methodology_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Retired the NY Fed Household Debt and Credit source from the active auto-allocation assumption; reconciled FFIEC bank, NCUA credit-union, Federal Reserve Board G.19, and SEC Auto ABS evidence; separately versioned the resulting 50-company and headline-index restatement; and added computed source criticality with independent fallbacks and visible degraded-source bands.","target_series":null,"title":"Auto allocation moved to regulatory and filing evidence","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#methodology-1-2-auto-allocation-sources"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:ux-prediction-evidence-rail","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Used the wide homepage's prediction rail for the live ledger count and existing historical backtest figures, while preserving explicit live-versus-backtest labels, mobile reading order, and the separate live-grade calibration record.","target_series":null,"title":"Prediction evidence moved beside the forecast","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#ux-prediction-evidence-rail"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:ux-information-architecture","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Separated the homepage claims into an ordered reading path, promoted the immutable prediction ledger, grouped 38 indistinguishable baseline-only Evidence Lift rows behind a native disclosure, and added a complete alphabetical company directory without changing any estimate or feed.","target_series":null,"title":"Company directory and ledger path clarified","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#ux-information-architecture"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:tier-flow-typographic-inversion","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Compressed the heading scale so figures carry the hierarchy and added a server-rendered current-period flow view whose ribbon width represents estimated dollars and whose solid, dashed, and dotted styles expose evidence tiers without color dependence.","target_series":null,"title":"Numbers promoted; credit flow added","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#tier-flow-typographic-inversion"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:scoreboard-first-live-grades","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Published the first two live grades, prominently flagging that the revolving prediction missed direction and its 80% interval; added running live-only coverage and MAE comparisons without retraining or retuning the model.","target_series":null,"title":"First live grades published without softening","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#scoreboard-first-live-grades"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:scoreboard-feed-grade-status-corrected","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Corrected the scoreboard compatibility status so every graded row reports GRADED, matching grade_status; the feed schema now states and tests that invariant.","target_series":null,"title":"Graded feed status corrected","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#scoreboard-feed-grade-status-corrected"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_f180179664ad5f7d7df1c53740dc939220dbda78e29303b85e7d714454537d93","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-07T23:50:56.278575+00:00","summary":"12,326 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 3,320 to 21,333; 95% band -1,448 to 26,101.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLN.M","title":"New prediction: Nonrevolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_f180179664ad5f7d7df1c53740dc939220dbda78e29303b85e7d714454537d93/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_4613c5a7c6b9b652464e7c3230252f46a9fbf90f1b6d5c24b57244bba5a89966","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-07T23:50:56.278575+00:00","summary":"6,425 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -1,357 to 14,207; 95% band -5,477 to 18,327.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLR.M","title":"New prediction: Revolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_4613c5a7c6b9b652464e7c3230252f46a9fbf90f1b6d5c24b57244bba5a89966/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"grade:prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af","event_type":"new_grade","occurred_at":"2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00","summary":"First print 6,800 million U.S. dollars; absolute error 12,329 million U.S. dollars.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLR.M","title":"New grade: Revolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"grade:prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0","event_type":"new_grade","occurred_at":"2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00","summary":"First print 7,400 million U.S. dollars; absolute error 2,568 million U.S. dollars.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLN.M","title":"New grade: Nonrevolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0/"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:v1-1-1-cvna-evidence-lift","event_type":"methodology_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Added Carvana's SEC-filed originated-auto-finance and ABS trust evidence, included CVNA in the covered-auto allocation, and published the derived Evidence Lift ranking under a non-breaking v2 company-feed schema.","target_series":null,"title":"Carvana auto-finance classification corrected","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-1-cvna-evidence-lift"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_c589a3d29179066784b619fc64987dcc9929c5cedff496ff4d7ca3472d543e44","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T02:24:45.950514+00:00","summary":"12,523 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 3,454 to 21,591; 95% band -1,347 to 26,392.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLN.M","title":"New prediction: Nonrevolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_c589a3d29179066784b619fc64987dcc9929c5cedff496ff4d7ca3472d543e44/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T02:24:45.950514+00:00","summary":"-5,529 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -13,243 to 2,184; 95% band -17,327 to 6,268.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLR.M","title":"New prediction: Revolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_89cff4ef13c82b4bccf6ded44e63c4d028bb1635da8c4890edbb9f7db44f86af/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T02:24:45.950514+00:00","summary":"9,968 million U.S. dollars; 80% band 923 to 19,013; 95% band -3,865 to 23,801.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLN.M","title":"New prediction: Nonrevolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_680ac2b8c3b5e47edcf306e2f1089e50d6bbfbaf50e83592563cb3e8ee5d66e0/"},{"date_precision":"second","event_id":"prediction:prd_6177c0c4e9f1c076686adb4cd5e4ead039b995aa246337288b9411c706e1a9dc","event_type":"new_prediction","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T02:24:45.950514+00:00","summary":"4,291 million U.S. dollars; 80% band -3,396 to 11,977; 95% band -7,464 to 16,046.","target_series":"DELTA_DTCTLR.M","title":"New prediction: Revolving credit flow","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/scoreboard/predictions/prd_6177c0c4e9f1c076686adb4cd5e4ead039b995aa246337288b9411c706e1a9dc/"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:v1-1-quarterly-refresh-2026-q1","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Recomputed the 2026-Q1 50-company attribution from six Board first-print monthly flows and point-in-time SEC filing facts; 35 denominators advanced through comparable 10-Q facts and 15 remained explicitly on their annual baseline.","target_series":null,"title":"Quarterly attribution refresh demonstrated","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-quarterly-refresh-2026-q1"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:v1-1-methodology","event_type":"methodology_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Expanded the evidence-first consumer-company universe from 10 to 50, published the dated 31-company exclusion ledger, and retained methodology 1.0.0 results for direct comparison.","target_series":null,"title":"P1 coverage expanded to 50 companies","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#v1-1-methodology"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:site-nowcast-units-provenance-and-orientation","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Clarified seasonally adjusted monthly-flow units, added plain-language forecast orientation and primary-source links, and made scoreboard sorting a JavaScript-only enhancement.","target_series":null,"title":"Nowcast units and provenance made explicit","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#site-nowcast-units-provenance-and-orientation"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:registry-digest-cross-platform","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Canonicalized attribution registry hashing and text assets so Windows and Linux cold clones publish byte-identical provenance metadata and site assets.","target_series":null,"title":"Registry digest made cross-platform","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#registry-digest-cross-platform"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:methodology-1-0-0","event_type":"methodology_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Published the first ten-company revenue-weighted DFRI estimate with 20,000-draw bands, tier shares, a public Assumption Registry, and company sensitivity rankings.","target_series":null,"title":"P0 attribution introduced","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#methodology-1-0-0"},{"date_precision":"day","event_id":"changelog:public-scoreboard-clock-started","event_type":"publication_change","occurred_at":"2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00","summary":"Published the immutable Federal Reserve credit-flow scoreboard and registered the scheduled prediction and first-print grading lanes.","target_series":null,"title":"Public scoreboard clock started","url":"https://cameloo1.github.io/dfri/changelog/#public-scoreboard-clock-started"}],"event_types":["methodology_change","model_change","new_grade","new_prediction","publication_change","restatement","source_fallback_activation"],"generated_at":"2026-09-10T01:09:01.243063+00:00","schema_version":"v1"}