DFRIDebt-Funded Revenue Index

Roadmap and boundaries

DFRI publishes a deliberately bounded claim: estimates of debt-funded U.S. consumer revenue, plus immutable forecasts that are graded against official first prints. The boundaries below distinguish missing work from work intentionally excluded.

Published now

  • A revenue-weighted estimated DFR% band for the covered company universe, with company bands, Tier 1/2/3 shares, assumptions, and provenance.
  • Monthly Federal Reserve G.19 revolving and nonrevolving credit-flow predictions, recorded before release and graded against dated first prints.
  • A deployment candidate for separate Monthly Treasury Statement deficit and outlays clocks. These series remain distinct from consumer-credit attribution and are not blended into DFR%.
  • Aggregate, versioned feeds and append-only prediction, grade, publication, methodology, and restatement records.

Planned

  • A byte-identical multi-stream refactor before any new revenue stream is activated.
  • A federal-award stream that keeps observed awards at Tier 1 and the deficit-financed share as a separate Tier 2 assumption.
  • Dedicated no-JavaScript flow views, household-credit gap filling, and a published business-debt feasibility decision.
  • At eight immutable live grades per target series, a live-versus-backtest diagnostic for MAE and interval coverage before any model change is considered.

Planned work is not current measurement. See the public execution plan for acceptance criteria and trigger state.

Deliberately excluded

FRED and ALFRED
Rejected because their terms conflict with the project's software, storage, and redistribution path. Board release-page data and dated Federal Reserve archives are used instead.
FINRA margin statistics
Rejected after the terms audit did not establish a clean derivative-redistribution path. No FINRA rows are stored or published.
NY Fed Household Debt and Credit derivatives
Retired from the active auto-allocation assumption because its share-alike condition conflicts with the blanket non-commercial feed license. Prior methodology remains historical; active values use FFIEC, NCUA, Board G.19, and SEC evidence.
Market and price data
No TradingView, market-cap, share-price, or paid-vendor feed is used. DFRI is not a valuation, return, or investment-ranking product.
Personal and loan-level publication
No borrower, account, vehicle, loan-level, or other personal record is redistributed. Public outputs are aggregate.
Public API server
The FastAPI service is deferred until external demand or unwieldy feed size warrants serverless deployment. Static JSON, CSV, and Parquet feeds are the current access surface.

Use is not redistribution

Being able to view or download a source does not establish permission to automate retrieval, store it in a reproducible pipeline, or redistribute a derivative under DFRI's license. Each active source must pass those questions separately before ingestion. A conflict produces a blocked or retired source with public evidence, not an improvised substitute.

Read the source licensing and fallback record · Read the methodology