Predictions

Forecast first. Check against the first print. Every forecast of monthly U.S. consumer borrowing or Treasury fiscal flow stays on the record, with its original 80% and 95% uncertainty bands.

G.19 uses seasonally adjusted flows in millions of U.S. dollars; MTS uses unadjusted monthly totals. Predictions precede the official release. Rows start newest first; bands sort by their lower bound and unreleased values stay last. Actuals are release-coherent first prints, never later revisions.

Live calibration by series

Live calibration

Nonrevolving credit flow

Graded records: 1
Within 80% band: 100.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band: 100.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error: 2,568$M · live grades only
Naive MAE: 1,959$M · ar2-ols-v1

Revolving credit flow

Graded records: 1
Within 80% band: 0.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band: 0.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error: 12,329$M · live grades only
Naive MAE: 5,525$M · ar2-ols-v1

Federal deficit

Graded records: 0
Within 80% band: —versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band: —versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error: —$M · live grades only
Naive MAE: —$M · awaiting first grade

Federal outlays

Graded records: 0
Within 80% band: —versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band: —versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error: —$M · live grades only
Naive MAE: —$M · awaiting first grade

The naive comparator is refit for each target using only first prints available when that prediction was recorded. These statistics update from live grades only and remain separate from the historical backtest.

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10 prediction(s); 0 pre-public engineering row(s) excluded. Forecasts, intervals, first prints, and errors are monthly amounts in millions of U.S. dollars ($M); the target column distinguishes G.19 seasonally adjusted flows from MTS unadjusted totals.
Made at	Target	Period	Point estimate ($M)	80% band ($M)	95% band ($M)	First print ($M)	Abs. error ($M)	Status
2026-09-10 01:09 UTC	Nonrevolving credit flow	2026-08-31	10,156	1,187 to 19,124	-3,561 to 23,872	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-09-10 01:09 UTC	Revolving credit flow	2026-08-31	3,026	-4,737 to 10,788	-8,846 to 14,897	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-09-07 20:00 UTC	Federal deficit	2026-08-31	344,792	170,666 to 518,918	-189,003 to 878,586	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-09-07 20:00 UTC	Federal outlays	2026-08-31	629,715	497,560 to 761,870	442,777 to 816,653	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-08-07 23:50 UTC	Nonrevolving credit flow	2026-07-31	12,326	3,320 to 21,333	-1,448 to 26,101	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-08-07 23:50 UTC	Revolving credit flow	2026-07-31	6,425	-1,357 to 14,207	-5,477 to 18,327	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC	Nonrevolving credit flow	2026-07-31	12,523	3,454 to 21,591	-1,347 to 26,392	Not released	—	Awaiting first print
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC	Revolving credit flow	2026-06-30	-5,529	-13,243 to 2,184	-17,327 to 6,268	6,800	12,329	Graded
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC	Nonrevolving credit flow	2026-06-30	9,968	923 to 19,013	-3,865 to 23,801	7,400	2,568	Graded
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC	Revolving credit flow	2026-07-31	4,291	-3,396 to 11,977	-7,464 to 16,046	Not released	—	Awaiting first print