DFRIDebt-Funded Revenue Index

Predictions

Forecast first. Check against the first print. Every forecast of monthly U.S. consumer borrowing or Treasury fiscal flow stays on the record, with its original 80% and 95% uncertainty bands.

G.19 uses seasonally adjusted flows in millions of U.S. dollars; MTS uses unadjusted monthly totals. Predictions precede the official release. Rows start newest first; bands sort by their lower bound and unreleased values stay last. Actuals are release-coherent first prints, never later revisions.

Live calibration by series

Live calibration

Nonrevolving credit flow

Graded records
1
Within 80% band
100.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
100.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
2,568$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
1,959$M · ar2-ols-v1

Revolving credit flow

Graded records
1
Within 80% band
0.0%versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
0.0%versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
12,329$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
5,525$M · ar2-ols-v1

Federal deficit

Graded records
0
Within 80% band
—versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
—versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
—$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
—$M · awaiting first grade

Federal outlays

Graded records
0
Within 80% band
—versus 80% nominal
Within 95% band
—versus 95% nominal
Mean absolute error
—$M · live grades only
Naive MAE
—$M · awaiting first grade

The naive comparator is refit for each target using only first prints available when that prediction was recorded. These statistics update from live grades only and remain separate from the historical backtest.

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56 prediction(s); 0 pre-public engineering row(s) excluded. Forecasts, intervals, first prints, and errors are monthly amounts in millions of U.S. dollars ($M); the target column distinguishes G.19 seasonally adjusted flows from MTS unadjusted totals.
Made at Target Period Point estimate ($M) 80% band ($M) 95% band ($M) First print ($M) Abs. error ($M) Status
2026-11-14 03:22 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-10-31 2,893 -4,963 to 10,749 -9,122 to 14,908 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-14 03:22 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-10-31 9,798 932 to 18,664 -3,761 to 23,357 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-14 03:22 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-11-30 8,852 793 to 16,911 -3,473 to 21,177 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-14 03:22 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-11-30 11,400 2,310 to 20,490 -2,502 to 25,302 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-07 02:53 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-10-31 3,160 -4,696 to 11,016 -8,854 to 15,174 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-07 02:53 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-10-31 9,858 992 to 18,723 -3,701 to 23,416 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-03 03:58 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-10-31 9,825 889 to 18,760 -3,841 to 23,491 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-03 03:58 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 5,827 -1,980 to 13,634 -6,112 to 17,767 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-03 03:58 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-10-31 3,579 -4,248 to 11,405 -8,391 to 15,548 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-11-03 03:58 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,042 2,132 to 19,953 -2,585 to 24,670 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-28 02:22 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 5,429 -2,377 to 13,235 -6,510 to 17,367 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-28 02:22 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-10-31 9,971 961 to 18,982 -3,809 to 23,752 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-28 02:22 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-10-31 13,636 5,697 to 21,575 1,494 to 25,778 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-28 02:22 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,042 2,132 to 19,953 -2,585 to 24,670 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-17 01:21 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,022 2,111 to 19,933 -2,606 to 24,650 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-17 01:21 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 5,429 -2,377 to 13,235 -6,510 to 17,367 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-17 01:21 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-10-31 9,851 716 to 18,987 -4,120 to 23,823 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-17 01:21 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-10-31 21,478 13,320 to 29,636 9,002 to 33,955 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-10 02:24 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 5,429 -2,377 to 13,235 -6,510 to 17,367 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-10 02:24 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,042 2,132 to 19,953 -2,585 to 24,670 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-08 02:44 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 12,278 3,346 to 21,211 -1,383 to 25,939 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-08 02:44 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 3,501 -4,317 to 11,319 -8,455 to 15,458 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-03 02:04 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 12,271 3,306 to 21,235 -1,440 to 25,981 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-03 02:04 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 11,312 2,544 to 20,081 -2,098 to 24,723 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-03 02:04 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 4,109 -3,482 to 11,699 -7,500 to 15,718 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-10-03 02:04 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 3,510 -4,261 to 11,280 -8,374 to 15,393 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-29 02:36 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 3,178 -4,634 to 10,990 -8,770 to 15,126 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-29 02:36 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 4,109 -3,482 to 11,699 -7,500 to 15,718 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-29 02:36 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 12,130 3,118 to 21,141 -1,652 to 25,911 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-29 02:36 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 11,312 2,544 to 20,081 -2,098 to 24,723 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-26 01:39 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 3,178 -4,634 to 10,990 -8,770 to 15,126 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-26 01:39 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 12,130 3,118 to 21,141 -1,652 to 25,911 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-26 01:39 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 10,011 1,034 to 18,988 -3,719 to 23,741 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-26 01:39 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 3,346 -4,429 to 11,120 -8,544 to 15,235 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-19 01:15 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 12,096 3,005 to 21,188 -1,807 to 26,000 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-19 01:15 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 10,031 1,053 to 19,009 -3,700 to 23,761 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-19 01:15 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 3,279 -4,495 to 11,053 -8,610 to 15,169 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-19 01:15 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 3,675 -4,207 to 11,557 -8,379 to 15,730 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-17 01:30 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 -19,715 -27,978 to -11,452 -32,352 to -7,078 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-17 01:30 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 10,031 1,053 to 19,009 -3,700 to 23,761 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-17 01:30 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,599 2,401 to 20,797 -2,469 to 25,667 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-17 01:30 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 3,014 -4,760 to 10,788 -8,876 to 14,903 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-12 01:12 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-09-30 11,734 2,541 to 20,927 -2,325 to 25,793 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-12 01:12 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-09-30 -19,901 -28,156 to -11,647 -32,526 to -7,277 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-12 01:12 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 10,176 1,207 to 19,145 -3,541 to 23,893 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-12 01:12 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 2,827 -4,936 to 10,589 -9,045 to 14,698 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-10 01:09 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-08-31 10,156 1,187 to 19,124 -3,561 to 23,872 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-10 01:09 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-08-31 3,026 -4,737 to 10,788 -8,846 to 14,897 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-07 20:00 UTC Federal deficit 2026-08-31 344,792 170,666 to 518,918 -189,003 to 878,586 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-09-07 20:00 UTC Federal outlays 2026-08-31 629,715 497,560 to 761,870 442,777 to 816,653 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-08-07 23:50 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-07-31 12,326 3,320 to 21,333 -1,448 to 26,101 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-08-07 23:50 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-07-31 6,425 -1,357 to 14,207 -5,477 to 18,327 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-07-31 12,523 3,454 to 21,591 -1,347 to 26,392 Not released — Awaiting first print
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-06-30 -5,529 -13,243 to 2,184 -17,327 to 6,268 6,800 12,329 Graded
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC Nonrevolving credit flow 2026-06-30 9,968 923 to 19,013 -3,865 to 23,801 7,400 2,568 Graded
2026-08-05 02:24 UTC Revolving credit flow 2026-07-31 4,291 -3,396 to 11,977 -7,464 to 16,046 Not released — Awaiting first print