DFRIDebt-Funded Revenue Index
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Federal deficit · 2026-08-31

Recorded 2026-09-07 20:00 UTC under mts-benchmark-empirical-v1:mts-naive-seasonal-v1; append-only after acceptance.

2026-08-31 · Treasury MTS · $M
344,792
unadjusted monthly total · $MAwaiting first printMTS source
Prediction band: -189,003 to 878,586, point 344,792 -189,003344,792878,586
Low-189,003Point344,792High878,586

95% prediction interval · $M

View chart data and provenance
Text equivalent for this immutable prediction and both published uncertainty intervals.
Series and periodFederal deficit, 2026-08-31
Point344,792 millions of U.S. dollars
80% interval170,666 to 518,918 millions of U.S. dollars
95% interval-189,003 to 878,586 millions of U.S. dollars
StatusAwaiting first print
ProvenanceDated Treasury MTS issues

Record

Prediction ID
prd_8a434fae2d296f262ef0e592468e64c8b97ce594c82847322e2916877ee73928
Model version
mts-benchmark-empirical-v1:mts-naive-seasonal-v1
Input hash
c63037ecd23408bf8680bad67ce0860292bdcb72e0de176d18a48988c6d47436
Input sources
Input set bound by the input hash above: U.S. Treasury MTS dated issues. Grading uses the same dated first-print issue.
80% interval
170,666 to 518,918
95% interval
-189,003 to 878,586
Status
Awaiting first print
Actual first print
Not released
Absolute error
—
First-print vintage
Not released